Three Key Post-Flop Questions
By Barry Tanenbaum
I have been trying to think of a sport/activity in which it is worse to finish second than it is in poker. I finally came up with boxing, in which the guy that finishes second may be unconscious. But even then, the guy who finishes second gets paid.
In poker the player who finishes second loses the most money. It seems very unfair, but it is a fact of poker life we all must contend with. So, while we don't talk about it much, it is frequently better to avoid finishing second than it is to finish first.
You understand this goes against the American Dream, as characterized in thousands of movies. In the movies, a person struggles against overwhelming odds, hoping, persevering, remaining optimistic, and, in the last reel, coming out victorious. Applause. Curtain.
Ah, but in real life, a struggle against overwhelming odds is not always rewarded. And in poker, it is downright foolhardy. Whistling a happy tune will not make your draw to a straight come any more often.
Who Wins At Poker?
In the long run, there are two people who make money in poker: the player with the best hand, and the one with the best draw. I do not want to type this last sentence twice, so please go back and read it again.
This brings us to the three crucial questions you should be asking yourself after the flop in most hold'em situations.
- Do I have the best hand?
- Do I have the best draw?
- Am I last to act? (I know you are wondering where question three came from, but hang on. We will come to it.)
I need to put a disclaimer here. Pot odds typically determine your chances of improving, and you absolutely must take that into consideration. But I have seen lots of players staying in for "pot odds" without any idea whether they are getting the right odds to go on or not. Many also fail to take into account possible hands their opponents have or may still make. All of these ideas will be another column someday, but I do want to say I am not telling you to ignore pot odds. I just want you to have a feeling for how to think about your hands after the flop.
Always remember, the hardest game to come from behind is hold'em, because of the community cards. If you have KK in stud while your opponent has AA, obviously you are in trouble, but you still have chances. You could make two pair while the AA does not; or some miracle might happen such as a straight or flush. In hold'em, the second pair idea is out the window. All of the other cards you will get are cards your opponent gets too. So you are down to relying on miracles, and that's losing poker.
Similarly, if you have AJ and are up against AK, your hand may look pretty when an ace falls, but chances are good you will end up with one of those Silver Medals, which are nice in the Olympics, but very bad in poker. If you want to make money at poker, you need to make sure you are either leading, or have the best chance (and the correct odds) to catch up.
We can now examine the three questions I proposed. I am not looking at pot odds in this article, but there are plenty of places, including several sources here at PokerPages, where you can find excellent discussions of the odds.
Do I have the best hand?
Poker being a game of incomplete information, you rarely know for certain that you have the best hand. But you are not just flying blind here either. You usually have a pretty good idea if you have the best hand or not. If you are in the blind with A3, the flop comes A95, you bet and there is a raise and a call, you are not a big favorite. You don't need to call this hand to the river because "I had a ace." If you are in late position with 98, and the flop comes K85, the UTG player bets and two players call, you do not need x-ray vision to figure you are way behind. When you get in these positions, throw your hand away. Yes, you might make two pair, and two pair may be good, and you might win a pot, but more likely you are climbing uphill just to be abandoned at the river. If you think you have the second best pair, fold. If you think you have the second best kicker, fold. If you think your straight loses to a higher straight, fold.
Do I have the best draw?
Continuing our conceptual discussion, the other player who makes money in poker is the one holding the best draw. It seems silly to say this, but it is necessary because so many people ignore it: A draw for the nuts is far better than any other kind of draw. If three hearts flop, and you are holding the K of hearts, you not only have to hope a heart comes, you also have to hope the ace is not out against you. That comes to two hopes, which of course might come true, but you also might end up paying a lot to win one of those Silver Medals. Certainly, I am not telling you to throw away all non-nut draws in limit poker, but I see people losing money every day trying to make medium flushes (especially one card flushes) or the bottom end of straights, both because they miss them and again because they make them. The very best players sit on the sidelines a lot and watch other people win pots they could have won. Experts are not trying to win all of the pots they can. They are trying to win those that represent good value, while trying not to finish second too often. Frequently any two card flush draw is worth playing. But if there are a lot of players and a lot of calling and raising, small and medium flush draws need to realize that there is probably competition in the flush department. Pots with lots of players and action become so large that the pot odds become seductive. Under these circumstances, lots of players pay far too much to draw to second-best hands.
Two card straight draws (draws using both cards in your hand) are lot better than one card straight draws. If you get free play with J3 and the flop comes QT9, you are looking at another parlay: you need to make your hand, and then hope nobody has the same straight you have or even a better one. In a large multi-way pot, even though the chips are there, this is too much hoping for me.
Note the a hand like 72 is different, in that if the flop comes 865 it is more likely in most games that nobody else has a seven. So you should be less likely to have a split pot. However, if the flop is 986, you cannot play this one card draw. A 10 gives you a straight, all right, but a higher straight may be out there, or a J or Q might give somebody one.
Straight draws in hands with two suited cards go down in value. Straight and flush draws in hands with pairs on the board go way down in value. I certainly cannot tell you whether you have the best draw or not in every circumstance. But you need to be on the lookout for situations where your draw may be second best or worse.
Am I last to act?
Well, if you don't have the best hand, and you don't have the best draw, what difference does it make when you act?
I suggest that you can play some combination back-door hands only when the pot is reasonably large, your combination chances are very likely to win when they come home, and you are last to act. Being last to act means that you cannot be raised. The call you put in closes the betting and they show you another card. Please do not tell me that you know the three players behind you are going to call so you are sure it will only cost you one bet. Last to act provides a certainty that no other situation can.
Let's try an example. You hold 5c3c and get a free play in the big blind in a pot with several callers. The flop comes Kc 9h 4d. If the small blind bets, you should fold. If, instead, all check to the button who bets and the small blind folds (or calls), you still must fold. Someone behind you may put in a check-raise whether you expect it or not.
But if the player to your left bets and several players call, I think you can take a chance and take a card off. A 6 or 2 will give you an open ended straight, and a club will give you a flush draw. Note that almost all your straight draws will be to the nuts if you make them, and if a deuce falls followed by an ace, you could get a great deal of action. Also note that an Ac and 7c will give you a flush draw with additional outs. This gives 15 cards that will give you a very reasonable draw, and four that will give you excellent chances. And any hand you make will be a complete surprise, which helps you make more money when you do hit one. One small bet is small price to pay for all of these possibilities, including the marvelous impact on your table image if one of these weird draws does come home.
Thus, here is a hand that has almost no worth but can call a single bet in a multi-way pot if there is nobody behind you who can act. These sorts of hands do appear from time to time. You need to be aware, both of the opportunity, and the danger, of calling in these very marginal situations.
Keep in mind these three questions, combined with an understanding of the odds the pot is offering you, and you will win more Gold Medals and avoid those Silver ones.
